NX Release

Picture Source:http://wiiudaily.com/2015/03/nintendo-nx-codename-next-console/

It's finally 2016 and the NX is still the most talked Nintendo Topic. Well apart from the censorship in Fire Emblem: Fates, but my stand on that is the same as with Xenoblade and Fatal Frame. It's unnecessary and in the long run hurts more than it helps.

But let's return to the topic at hand. The NX.

Some new rumors surfaced, and this time they even sounded believable, but I'm not going to talk about them in detail.

Still here is a short rundown:

1. Exclusive Franchises, for example, Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong and many more.
2. Connect to other players all around the world via the Nintendo Network.
3. You can play on either the NX home console or the NX handheld.
4. Collect and share Achievements in games and battle against other players and the whole Nintendo.
5. Browse the Web or use the Video Call feature.
6. Supports 4k and 60fps Video-Streaming
7. Supports 900p/60fps

Well lets not further dwell on this, but instead let's talk about why the NX won't be released in 2016. To clarify, I'm talking about the home console NX. If the NX is truly a fusion concept, the handheld version could very well be released this year, but I think this also unlikely. If the fusion concept proves to be true I'm guessing that the handheld will be released about half a year before the home console.

But why won't the NX be released this year? Well I think there are several points:

• Nintendo and the Wii-U are currently making money:

There is a reason why we haven't seen a price drop for the Wii-U in so long. At the current price Nintendo is making money with each sold unit. While a price drop may increase sales, it seems that Nintendo thinks that the added customers won't counterweight the cost of subsidizing the Wii-U. So currently, although it's doing far from great or even good, the Wii- U is making them money. So there is no immediate need to replace it. Especially if this would create more problems than it would solve.

Also they currently have a strong revenue generator in the form of Amiibo and the 3DS, although the latter is significantly slowing down.

• A rushed release could push them even deeper into Irrelevancy:

While it may seem feasible to release the NX as soon as possible to replace the struggling Wii-U, this may have the opposite of the desired effect. One of the main problems in the early days of the Wii-U was the lack of games. Next to the abysmal marketing this proved to be fatal. If the NX reproduces this problem I'm not sure if Nintendo will recover from this.

• Nintendo wants to satisfy current Wii-U owners:

This has been said again and again, but it's still relevant. Most of the current Wii-U owners are big Nintendo fans. A rushed NX release will only alienate this fans, with no guarantee of attracting a large new crowd. And even though the Wii-U has already a great library of exclusive games, the simple fact that Nintendo breaks the, genuinely accepted, life span of consoles, will leave a bitter taste in many peoples mouth.

We even have an example of this. After the Saturn struggled Sega killed the console prematurely and released the Dreamcast after only four years. This proved fatal for the former rival of Nintendo. Customer lost trust and as a result the sales of the, at that time, technically superior Dreamcast struggled. If even the captain jumps ship, instead of trying to fix it, then why should we board it in the first place?

• It wouldn't fit a console cycle:

This is an extension of the previous point. Apart from the last, overly long generation, each console cycle normally lasts 5-6 years. Here is the data for Nintendos previous consoles:

1. NES : Japan: 15^th July 1983
   USA: 18^th October 1985
   Europe: 1^st September 1986
   
   
2. SNES: Japan: 21^st November 1990
   USA: 13^th August 1991
   Europe: 11^th April 1992

3. Nintendo 64: Japan: 23^rd June 1996
   USA: 29^th September 1996
   Europe: 1^st March 1997
   
   
4. Gamecube: Japan: 14^th September 2001
   USA: 18^th November 2001
   Europe: 3^rd May 2002
   
   
5. Wii: Japan: 2^nd December 2006
   USA: 19^th November 2006
   Europe: 8^th December 2006
   
   
6. Wii-U: Japan: 8^th December 2012
   USA: 18^th November 2012
   Europe: 30^th November 2012

As you can see each console generation, with the exception of the NES in Japan, has lasted 5-6 years so far. People have come to expect this time frame and breaking the cycle prematurely will, as Sega has shown, only create a distrust in the consumer base. And this would, most certainly, prove to be the end for Nintendo as a console manufacturer.

• There hasn't been an announcement and release in the same year:

So far there wasn't a home console that was fully unveiled to the public and then released in the same year. The closest was the Nintendo 64 with it's full unveil on the 24^th of November 1995 and Japanese release on the 23^rd June of 1996, but apart from that there has always been at least a year between unveiling a console and releasing it.

• Nintendo is focusing on other areas this year:

This is the first of two speculative points, which is why I put these at the end. There are no facts to back these up, so if you want to skip them go ahead.

Another reason why I don't think the NX will release this year is the fact that Nintendo may want's to focus on other areas of it's business. They will continue to expand the Amiibo business. There is the deal with Universal to build Theme Park attractions, which is probably only the first step in that direction. Nintendo has times and times again affirmed the statement that they intend to branch out their licensing of intellectual property. So maybe we'll get information on upcoming movie or TV deals this year.

Next is the whole Smartphone deal. They want to use their presence there to lure potential customers towards their core business. Introducing the NX, while also starting this process may confuse them.

And lastly there is the uncertain factor of QoL. We still don't know anything about the Quality of Life project, and there is a good chance that 2016 is going to be the year, where Nintendo launches this project. And the launch of two (or three if the handheld NX also launches) big projects in one year may exceed Nintendos possibilities.

After all, even though they are a relatively big company, they are dwarfs next to the likes of Microsoft, Sony or Apple.

• The Wii-U sales may increase:

Now this one is a little bit far fetched, but there is a good possibility for the Wii-U to increase it's sales. Many consumer are probably considering the Wii-U as a secondary console. After all it provide experiences not found on Xbox One or PlayStation 4. Releasing attractive bundles may capture these potential customers. On the other hand releasing the NX will cut into these potential sales. We already saw a 24,27% increase of Wii-U sales over the past year and looking at the current data this trend could very well translate into the future.

These are the reasons why I don't believe we'll be seeing the NX release in 2016. A winter 2017 release is a safer bet in my opinion.

But what are your opinions and thoughts about this? Would you prefer the NX console launching soon? Would you be upset? Or would you simply not care?

And as always

thanks for reading

Sources: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/2015_02.html

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2015/annual1503e.pdf