The Keys to a successful Switch

When late Nintendo President Satoru Iwata announced the Nintendo NX in March 2015 he started one of the biggest sources for hype and rumors that I've ever seen. Especially in the last months before the actual reveal of the Switch you couldn't have one day without a new rumor or leak. Now I thought this would slow down after the actual reveal. But Nintendo had other plans. And while I think the reveal was in fact very well done and worked, for what it intended to be, it also left enough spaces open so that the rumors and speculation could continue. This will hopefully end in January, when Nintendo will answer all questions, but until then we'll have to live with our daily Switch rumor/leak.

But there is also one thing that's good about the vague information we have so far. It gives me the possibility to talk about the things the Nintendo Switch needs to do to become a success.

After the commercial failure that was the Wii-U Nintendo needs another successful console to stay relevant. They can't forever life of a dwindling market share of Nintendo faithfuls and need to reclaim lost customers. This can only be done by bringing in both, hardcore and casual gamers. Something the Wii-U failed to do, but the PlayStation 4 manages to pull of perfectly.

With the first trailer Nintendo made a step in the right direction. Instead of the hot mess that was the Wii-Us unveil it was well paced and had a clear message. Everybody instantly got what the NX was about. The Switch is off to a good start. Something that I didn't expect after the months of silence preceding the announcement. I wasn't sure if they could survive the Hype that had build up over the passing months.

After watching the Trailer however my worries were disperse immediately. Nintendo definitely knows what they are doing here.

So after this good start what comes next? Well in my opinion there are four key factors that will decide the success of the Nintendo Switch.

The right Price:

I think this will be the most deciding factor for success with the casual crowd. It is also important for hardcore gamers, but more in the sense of a return of investment, while the Casual gamers only see the Price and don't care much for the specs. So a lower price than the Wii-U is unavoidable if they want the Switch to succeed. If Nintendo truly wants the Switch to be such a social experience, like the promised in the trailer, they have to make sure that enough people can afford it. Video game consoles are still mostly seen as toy by the general public. And even though the Video games industry is massive this hasn't changed in the last couple of years. Because of that the average person isn't willing to invest as much into a console as in, for example, a new phone. A Price Point which you can easily accommodate into a balanced budget will help to get the Switch into a reasonable amount of households in the first year.

Also the Switch will have to prove itself against the X-Box One and the PlayStation 4. It doesn't matter if Nintendo thinks they are in no direct competition because they are. You'll easily can find those consoles for around 300$, so if the Switch wants to stay competitive it can't be allowed to cost more.

While the fact that the Switch serves as both, a portable and a home console, resonates with the casual crowd, it don't think it will be enough. After all they have their mobile phones for gaming on the go. But I also think the promise of being able to play anywhere, without huge limitations, is a great foundation to win back the casual market. A low price point of around 250$, which is also heavily rumored, would help the Switch get a good starting boost. And with that comes a sizable installer base, which will lead to more games and so forth.

So I think the most deciding factor for the initial success of the Switch won't be the Games or Specs or Marketing. It will be the Price. If Nintendo can win the price battle against Microsoft and Sony, if they can get their foot into the door, then I think the Switch will become a success. At least at the start. For it to become a long lasting story of success there are also some other key factors.

Now you're playing with Power:

Now while I think the raw price is more important with the Casual crowd this point is the most deciding factor with the Hardcore gamers. Can the Nintendo Switch truly compete with the X-Box One or the PlayStation 4? I think to have lasting success with the gaming crowd the Nintendo Switch needs to be at least at X-Box One levels of power. Preferably PlayStation 4.

From the initial show off during the Trailer I got a good feeling. Skyrim Remastered running on the Switch was a good sign and yes I know that Bethesda didn't officially announce it for the new console, but that's probably to keep the interest on the other versions of the game, which launched one week after the Switch reveal.

But it showed that the Switch has at least some horse power. The fact that they use a Nvidia Tegra chip is also reassuring. If the truly used the Tegra 2 Chip set with Pascal architecture a power level around the X-Box one is definitely possible.

But why is the Power level so important? Specs don't matter, games do. That is true, but if the Switch can't run X-Box One games then we have the same problem as with the Wii-U. Of course Nintendos failed console amplified the problem because it was extremely complicated to port games onto. A mistake Nintendo has fixed wit the Switch. But even the extremely popular Wii got hardly any games from PS3 or X-Box 360 and if they were heavily gimped. This resulted in poor sales for those ports and the Publisher abandoning the Wii completely in the later stages of its life cycle.

To keep this from happening to the Switch it needs a power level comparable to its competitors. Sony and Microsoft also did show with the PS4 Pro and the Scorpio that they don't intend to end this console generation anytime soon. Instead they will only offer Updates on their existing consoles. And while the games may look better on these upgrades, Sony and Microsoft will make sure that all games will also run on the basic versions of their consoles.

So if the Switch has a similar power level to X-Box One and PlayStation 4 it will get games as long as these two consoles are around.

Keeping their Promise:

The first trailer of the Nintendo Switch promised us that we would be able to play our home console games on the go and everywhere we want to. The Joy Cons will allow us to customize the control scheme and with the Docking Station we can seamless go from handheld into home console mode. So the Switch promises us to play however and wherever we want. This core principle is something that Nintendo needs to get right from the get go. Not like with the Wii, where the promise was only fulfilled when the Wii-Motion + launched.

The biggest catastrophe the Switch could get hit with is a game that only works when the console is docked. In fact it doesn't even need to be so bad. A game where several features are only available in one mode would be a huge problem. Just like with the Wii-U where several games didn't use the second screen at all. Some even by Nintendo. This brought up the question of the screen necessity and opened up a new front of criticism about the specs of the console. And this could also be a problem for the Switch if it happens there.

Why should I buy a console, which is weaker than the competition because of a unique feature, which isn't even used all the time. This is a train of thought that surely will appear in the minds of many people and pose a problem for the Switch. That is why they absolutely need to deliver on their promise from the get go.

A part on this is also a good battery life. At least the same amount as the 3DS should be manageable. If the Switch can't even last a short train trip then it will hardly be used in portable mode, which makes the whole foundation of the console crumble.

Games, Games, Games:

And as a last key factor, which will decide the success of the Switch, it will also need a good selection of launch games and support during its first year. So if the rumors are true and The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild is delayed till summer a new Mario 3D Game is a must at launch. You need a big flagship title to properly excite people for your console. This coupled with some of the rumored Wii-U Ports would provide a very good launch line up. Also I don't think that Wii-U Owners will then skip the console. Most Wii-U buyers are hardcore Nintendo Fans and a new 3D Mario Title is more enough for most of them to validate the purchase.

The Long Term Support of Games after the initial launch is also secured if Nintendo doesn't gimp the Switch in power, as I explained earlier.

All in all Game is both the most important and least important point. Of course it's the biggest deciding factor for the long term success of the Switch, but it's also completely dependent on the other points. If the specs are to bad there won't be third party support. If the price is too high and the Switch doesn't sell well in the first months, there won't be third party support.

So what are your thoughts about these four key factors? Would you agree? Or are there some factors I have missed?
Let me know what you think.

And as always

thanks for reading

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